With IHSA football set to move to districts for the 2021 season, we looked at a projection for the new system on Wednesday. That's our best projection at this time; however, a number of factors (mapping quirks, eight-man football, teams "playing up" classes, multiplier waivers, success formula) could substantially alter which districts teams are ultimately placed. Here we take a look at how those factors could affect local teams.
Before we get into the teams, a couple of quick notes:
• The expected classification is based on the recently released 2018-19 two-year enrollments for schools, divided by eight classifications. Classifications each have either 64 or 65 schools.
• The section with the number of 2018 opponents projected in a team's classification is to show how similar or different a team's district schedule could be regardless of how the mapping scenario shapes the districts.
• CARY-GROVE
Projected classification: Class 6A
Projected district: Belvidere, Belvidere (North), Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake (Central), Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge), Crystal Lake (South), Rockford (Guliford), Rockford (Jefferson)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Crystal Lake South, Crystal Lake Central, Hampshire, Prairie Ridge)
Notes: The most reasonable division of schools in the northern part of Class 6A seems to have four of the five 6A teams from the Fox Valley grouped with the four teams from the Rockford area from the NIC-10, but there are certainly other options available to be mapped.
• CRYSTAL LAKE CENTRAL
Projected classification: Class 6A
Projected district: Belvidere, Belvidere (North), Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake (Central), Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge), Crystal Lake (South), Rockford (Guliford), Rockford (Jefferson)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Five (Kankakee, Crystal Lake South, Cary-Grove, Hampshire, Prairie Ridge)
Notes: The rivalries with the Crystal Lake schools as well as Cary-Grove should be protected in the district system, but even that isn't 100 percent certain. A few of the teams from that cluster could easily be drawn into a district of teams closer to Lake Michigan, although that doesn't seem like the most logical solution.
• CRYSTAL LAKE SOUTH
Projected classification: Class 6A
Projected district: Belvidere, Belvidere (North), Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake (Central), Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge), Crystal Lake (South), Rockford (Guliford), Rockford (Jefferson)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Crystal Lake Central, Cary-Grove, Prairie Ridge, Hampshire)
Notes: Other than Hampshire, Crystal Lake South would be the team most likely in danger of being pulled away from their other Fox Valley rivals. If looked at on a sheer north-south line, there is a way that Crystal Lake South could be placed in a district with few schools the Gators regularly play. The district I've drawn seems to make the most logical sense, but there is room for variance.
• DUNDEE-CROWN
Projected classification: Class 8A
Projected district: Barrington, Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown), Gurnee (Warren), Huntley, Lincolnshire (Stevenson), McHenry, Waukegan, Zion-Benton
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Two (Huntley, McHenry)
Notes: Dundee-Crown is in an odd place in the 8A mapping situation and an explanation can be made for placing the Chargers in either one of the two northern-most districts in the class. The distinction between them and Fremd as far as a north-south line is virtually microscopic so putting D-C in either one of the two districts could easily be justified.
• HAMPSHIRE
Projected classification: Class 6A
Projected district: Bensenville (Fenton), Chicago (Lake View), Chicago (Mather), Chicago (Senn), Chicago (Von Steuben), Deerfield, Hampshire, Wheeling
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Five (Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake Central, Crystal Lake South, Prairie Ridge, Normal Community West)
Notes: Hampshire, from a geographical perspective, might be the hardest team to map if you look at the landscape from a purely north-south perspective. There are 17 teams in the northern portion of the state, which means one will be left out of the two northern-most districts. The furthest south of those 17 teams is Hampshire, meaning that it would most likely be pulled into Chicago or possibly pushed west.
• HARVARD
Projected classification: Class 4A
Projected district: Dixon, Genoa-Kingston, Harvard, Johnsburg, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Rock Falls, Stillman Valley, Woodstock (Marian).
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 4 (Sandwich, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Johnsburg).
Notes: Harvard may feel like it is being pressed back into the Big Northern Conference when the districts come out. Many of the schools logically paired with Harvard will be coming from that league. Harvard is one of a small handful of schools projected into a 9-team district rather than eight, primarily because of the problems of placing Dixon and Rock Falls in a reasonable district.
• HUNTLEY
Projected classification: Class 8A
Projected district: Barrington, Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown), Gurnee (Warren), Huntley, Lincolnshire (Stevenson), McHenry, Waukegan, Zion-Benton
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Three (Dundee-Crown, McHenry, Naperville North)
Notes: Huntley's presence as the farthest west of all of the schools classified in 8A – outside of the St. Louis area – puts it in a particularly precarious position in regards to mapping. The Red Raiders could be sent to any of about four districts based on that location. They are among the eight northern-most schools as well, and figuring out the most logical placement for them is a head scratcher.
• JACOBS
Projected classification: Class 7A
Projected district: Algonquin (Jacobs), DeKalb, Machesney Park (Harlem), Moline, Rockford (Auburn), Rockford (East), Rockton (Hononegah), Yorkville
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Zero
Notes: Not only will Jacobs face an entirely different schedule as the only school in the Fox Valley as a 7A, it's almost impossible to figure out what that schedule might look like. Jacobs seems like a logical fit for any one of three districts, but each of those districts needs an eighth team and all but one seem to have schools that are closer to the core than Jacobs is. West is the likeliest scenario, but the Golden Eagles could get pulled east or south.
• JOHNSBURG
Projected classification: Class 4A
Projected district: Dixon, Genoa-Kingston, Harvard, Johnsburg, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Rock Falls, Stillman Valley, Woodstock (Marian)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Woodstock Marian, Harvard, Marengo, Richmond-Burton)
Notes: The context of Johnsburg's district is fairly stable. The wrinkle could come with what the state decides to do with North Chicago. If the IHSA keep the Warhawks with northern schools, some of the former Big Northern schools could be pushed to a different district, but who knows what that could look like. This projection has the least amount of travel for the largest number of schools, but there's no telling if the computer will agree with it.
• MARIAN CENTRAL
Projected classification: Class 4A
Projected district: Dixon, Genoa-Kingston, Harvard, Johnsburg, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Rock Falls, Stillman Valley, Woodstock (Marian)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: One (Johnsburg)
Notes: Big changes are on the horizon for the Hurricanes, especially if they keep the multiplier waiver in place. It can be restored if they win three playoff games over the next two seasons. Regardless, the Hurricanes likely won't be linked to any teams from their current conference due to size and geographic differences.
• MARENGO
Projected classification: Class 4A
Projected district: Dixon, Genoa-Kingston, Harvard, Johnsburg, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Rock Falls, Stillman Valley, Woodstock (Marian)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Plano, Richmond-Burton, Johnsburg, Harvard)
Notes: It's pretty clear that Marengo will be placed in the northern-most district in 4A, the only real intrigue comes in where the district's edges will be placed. North Chicago to the east could be in or out, same situation with Rock Falls and Dixon to the west.
• McHENRY
Projected classification: Class 8A
Projected district: Barrington, Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown), Gurnee (Warren), Huntley, Lincolnshire (Stevenson), McHenry, Waukegan, Zion-Benton
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Two (Dundee-Crown, Huntley)
Notes: McHenry's district opportunties seem pretty clear, but either way the Warriors are going to find themselves in a very competitive grouping. The Fox Valley has certainly provided plenty of challenges for McHenry, but when it seems likely that Stevenson, Warren and Barrington could be very easily be added to that mix, that pool could get even deeper.
• PRAIRIE RIDGE
Projected classification: Class 6A
Projected district: Belvidere, Belvidere (North), Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake (Central), Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge), Crystal Lake (South), Rockford (Guliford), Rockford (Jefferson)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Cary-Grove, Crystal Lake Central, Crystal Lake South, Hampshire)
Notes: There are just enough schools in the northern side of the bracket to make things extraordinarily complex. Cary-Grove and the three Crystal Lake schools seem most likely to be placed with the four Rockford-area schools, but there's enough schools in close enough proximity to the quartet that it could be drawn in a totally different way.
• RICHMOND-BURTON
Projected classification: Class 4A
Projected district: Dixon, Genoa-Kingston, Harvard, Johnsburg, Marengo, Richmond-Burton, Rock Falls, Stillman Valley, Woodstock (Marian)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Four (Aurora Central Catholic, Harvard, Marengo, Johnsburg)
Notes: Like Johnsburg, Richmond-Burton's logical landing spot is pretty clear. The teams could vary a little bit, but teams from the Big Northern and Kishwaukee River will likely constitute nearly all, if not all, of the teams in its district.
• WOODSTOCK
Projected classification: Class 5A
Projected district: Arlington Heights (St. Viator), Burlington (Central), Freeport, Rochelle, Rockford (Boylan), Sterling, Woodstock, Woodstock (North)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Two (Burlington Central, Woodstock North)
Notes: The only thing that seems reasonably sure in regards to Woodstock is that it will be placed in the same district with Woodstock North. There's a logical line that would link Woodstock to the schools in the Rockford area, but there's also a chance they could be placed with teams along the north shore in Chicago.
• WOODSTOCK NORTH
Projected classification: Class 5A
Projected district: Arlington Heights (St. Viator), Burlington (Central), Freeport, Rochelle, Rockford (Boylan), Sterling, Woodstock, Woodstock (North)
Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: Two (Burlington Central, Woodstock)
Notes: The path to map Woodstock North looks much the same as their district neighbors from Woodstock. The district could be a rather tight geographic group on the north side of Chicago, or they could be pressed to the west with the other schools that need some additions in order to make an eight-team district.